Carney Says Canada Examined ‘Extreme Tail Risk’ of US Military Action
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has acknowledged that his government examined the possibility of military action by the United States against Canada, describing it as an “extreme tail risk” in an interview with The New York Times published on September 23, 2026.
Speaking to the paper in New York during the UN General Assembly week, Carney said that when pressed on US President Donald Trump’s repeated suggestion that Canada should become the 51st American state, he had looked closely at a US-led military scenario. “It would be irresponsible not to” prepare, he said, stressing that such planning was “not a base case” — not the outcome he expects. He declined to describe what the preparations involved, and his office said it had nothing to add.
The remarks arrive amid the sharpest strain in the US-Canada relationship in decades. Trade talks collapsed in August, followed by steep tariff exchanges, with Canada imposing retaliatory duties of up to 50 per cent on American goods earlier this month.
The Globe and Mail reported in January, citing senior government sources, that the Canadian Armed Forces had modelled a hypothetical US invasion and Canada’s potential response. Trump has previously ruled out using military force to annex Canada, saying he would rely instead on “economic force.”
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