Brazilians Vote in Tight Presidential Race as Final Polls Show Lula Ahead of Bolsonaro

BRASÍLIA — Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday in a high-stakes presidential first round, with final opinion polls showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly ahead of right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a race likely to be decided by an October 25 runoff.

A CNT/MDA poll released on Saturday put Lula at 43.1 percent against Bolsonaro’s 38 percent, based on a survey of 2,007 voters conducted from September 30 to October 2 with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, according to Reuters. Excluding blank and spoiled ballots, Lula reached 47.8 percent of projected valid votes to Bolsonaro’s 42.1 percent. In a likely runoff, the poll projected Lula leading 47.3 to 43.1 percent.

The race has tightened sharply in recent weeks. The previous CNT/MDA survey on September 15 had Lula leading 40.5 to 30.4 percent. A Datafolha poll released on Thursday also put Lula ahead, 42 to 38 percent in the first round, with a simulated runoff effectively tied at 48 to 45 percent.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth and final term in office, warning voters that Brazil’s sovereignty is at stake amid pressure from US President Donald Trump, whose administration has imposed fresh tariffs on Brazilian goods. Bolsonaro, 45, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has campaigned on cost-of-living concerns. The elder Bolsonaro, a close ally of Trump, is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after his 2022 election defeat.

Both candidates held final rallies on Saturday in the pivotal state of São Paulo. If no candidate secures more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners advance to the October 25 runoff.

Sources

• Reuters: Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil vote, CNT/MDA poll shows
• Reuters: Lula leads Bolsonaro by 3 points in Brazil runoff scenario, Datafolha poll shows
• AFP via The Peninsula Times: Lula, Bolsonaro in final push for votes ahead of knife-edge election