Geo-politics

Flávio Bolsonaro Beats Lula in First Round as Brazil Heads to October 25 Runoff

Abdul Mannan 2 hours ago • 2 min read

A crowd of Brazilian voters waving national flags outside a polling station in São Paulo at dusk on election day

Brazil’s presidential election is heading to a runoff after right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro beat incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Sunday’s first round, finishing ahead with about 47 per cent of the vote to Lula’s roughly 45 per cent, according to CNN, citing data from the country’s Superior Electoral Court.

Neither candidate crossed the 50 per cent threshold needed for an outright win. With the rest of the field eliminated, the two will meet again in the runoff on October 25, with the new presidential term due to begin in January.

The result was a genuine upset. Final polls just days before the vote had generally shown Lula narrowly ahead — the CNT/MDA survey put him at 43.1 per cent against 38 per cent for Bolsonaro — and analysts are already calling it a major polling miss, according to Fox News.

Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro and an ally of US President Donald Trump, told supporters in Brasília that “Brazil wants change,” declaring it “the end of the Workers’ Party era,” the Associated Press reported. Argentine President Javier Milei was among the first to congratulate him, writing on X that “the American continent belongs to citizens who want to live in freedom.”

Lula, 80, admitted the outcome had surprised him. “I confess I was convinced I would win the election in the first round,” he told supporters in São Paulo, according to CNN. “Starting tomorrow, we begin a new campaign. I am very good in the knockout stage.”

The runoff sets up a stark choice between two competing visions for Latin America’s biggest economy, Americas Quarterly editor Brian Winter told CNN — and for the region’s place between Washington and Beijing.